US & Hong Kong Market Update (2026-07-24)

Data date: US close 2026-07-23 (Beijing 07-24 07:00) | Sources: X (Twitter) KOL / institutional / financial-media posts from the past 24h (grok x_search) | Prices: Eastmoney indices + Yahoo US close. This report aggregates public information and market sentiment for informational/educational purposes only; it is not investment advice.

US equities sold off hard under earnings-season pressure — Nasdaq Composite closed 25137.69 (−2.15%), S&P 500 at 7408.30 (−1.21%), Dow at 51711.65 (−0.97%). The main thread was a "AI capex isn't free" scare led by Tesla and Alphabet, compounded by the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.70% (highest of Trump's second term) and Brent crude nearing $100. Hong Kong bucked the trend, with the Hang Seng closing 25210.81 (+1.28%) — though China-asset chatter on X was extremely thin.

1. Key Events

• Tesla Q2: record revenue, collapsing profit; stock craters. Revenue a record $28.24B (beat), adj. EPS $0.33 (miss); operating income −57% YoY, free cash flow negative at −$1.09B, with 2026 capex guided above $25B. $TSLA closed $319.69, −14.52%. @wallstengine / @unusual_whales 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• Alphabet's strong quarter reignites AI-capex worries, the second-largest drag on the Nasdaq. $GOOGL closed $317.69, −7.13%. @Charlesforless / @PhasedWealth 𝕏
• STMicro's Q3 guide disappoints. Q2 revenue $3.49B (+26% YoY, +12.7% QoQ, 34.8% GM), but Q3 guided to $3.70B below the $3.79B consensus — even as it raised its 2026 data-center outlook. $STM closed $53.49, −18.67%. @wallstengine / @SKundojjala 𝕏
• Lockheed Martin beats across the board. Revenue $20.06B, EPS $7.94 (vs $1.46 YoY), record backlog of $230B, raised full-year guidance. $LMT closed $568.59, +10.54% — a rare strong name in a down tape. @wallstengine / @StockMKTNewz 𝕏
• T-Mobile beats but stock slumps. Q2 EPS $2.99, postpaid net adds of 277,000 both beat, and it raised FCF guidance — a positive print, yet $TMUS closed $170.42, −10.75% (market likely focused on decelerating growth/competition). @business / @FirstSquawk 𝕏
• 10-year Treasury yield breaks 4.70%, first time since Jan 2025; @KobeissiLetter says "the bond market is flashing red." The 30-year has held above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest since 2007. @KobeissiLetter / @lisaabramowicz1 𝕏
• On the earnings call, Musk thanked Micron for its memory allocation, underscoring AI/robotics scramble for memory. $MU bucked the tape, closing $990.21 (+3.20%). @TheTranscript_ 𝕏

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reporting (an earnings-heavy night)

• Tesla $TSLA: @wallstengine posted the full Q2 line-up — revenue $28.24B, adj. EPS $0.33, deliveries 480,126, plus Robotaxi/Optimus/FSD progress; @unusual_whales reported "down nearly 14% intraday"; @StockMKTNewz (1,054 likes) and @eWhispers relayed Musk's capex remarks from the call. @MartiniGuyYT noted Tesla kept its Bitcoin but booked a $112M impairment. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• Lockheed $LMT: @wallstengine, @StockMKTNewz (405 likes) and @financialjuice all reported the EPS $7.94 / revenue $20.1B double beat; @TheTranscript_ quoted the CEO: "backlog reached a new all-time high, now $230 billion… FCF of $2.9B, sales +11% YoY." 𝕏
• T-Mobile $TMUS: @business (Bloomberg) reported better-than-expected wireless account growth; @FirstSquawk and @wallstengine covered EPS $2.99, revenue $22.79B, postpaid net adds 277,000 and raised FCF guidance.
• STMicro $STM: @wallstengine reported "Q3 guide $3.70B below $3.79B consensus, shares fell as much as 14%," alongside a raised 2026 data-center outlook.
• Rates/Macro: @NickTimiraos (WSJ) called next week's FOMC "one of the most uncertain in quite a while," with the chair scheduling a post-meeting presser; he quoted an official: "I can make a good case for either raising rates or not… they're just kind of stuck." Cooler inflation eased July-hike urgency before Iran reignited. @lisaabramowicz1 (Bloomberg) reported 30-year real yields near 3%, the highest since 2008, and cited Deutsche Bank on record-high NYSE margin debt. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

Views / Ratings

• @PatrickMoorhead (semis analyst, bullish $INTC): "No one should be surprised $INTC crushed earnings — datacenter CPUs are in unprecedented demand due to agentic AI and they have very high market share… Intel can take its deserved victory lap." (Notes it raised FY26 capex to $20B.) Note: $INTC still closed −2.33% ($100.23), at odds with his upbeat read. 𝕏
• @SKundojjala (SemiAnalysis, constructive on $STM medium-term): "STMicro 2Q26 is an accelerating recovery / AI-datacenter story, with DC targets 2x vs 1Q26, Q4 guided above $4B with a growth acceleration." — a contrast to the −18.67% short-term guidance disappointment. 𝕏
• @dnystedt (neutral): the first AI PCs on Nvidia's RTX Spark platform debut this Fall, with Asustek and MSI among the first. $NVDA closed $208.76 (−1.56%). 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

Macro / Indices

Bearish / Cautious

• @KobeissiLetter (≈5.4k likes / 954 RT): "The US 10Y yield breaks 4.70% for the first time since Jan 2025, above the April 2025 'Liberation Day' high — the bond market is flashing red." A separate post (≈2.6k likes): "Nasdaq 100 down over 2.5% on the day, S&P 500 erased $900B in market cap as the Iran war escalates and tech earnings drag." 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @biancoresearch (≈662 likes): "If the Fed wants to continually rationalize that inflation is not a problem, bond investors might panic. Is this why yields are rising?" — bond market "deeply troubled." 𝕏
• @lisaabramowicz1 (≈1.5k likes / 310 RT): "Since Oct '23, NYSE margin debt has increased 136% — the fastest rate on record except for Feb & March 2000." Hints at overheated leverage. 𝕏
• @PhasedWealth: "Why Nasdaq just ate a 2.15% drop while oil hit $100: the market finally remembered CapEx isn't free — $TSLA cratered ~14.5% and $GOOGL slid ~6.5–7%." 𝕏

Bullish / Constructive

• @TimmerFidelity (Fidelity global macro director, ≈285 likes): "Fundamentally we're in a much better place than 26 years ago — semiconductor earnings have tripled since last year… the main question is what happens when earnings growth peaks." Notes forward P/E is a modest ~21x. 𝕏
• @LizAnnSonders (Schwab chief strategist, ≈68 likes): "Strong 2Q26 earnings season for financials so far; large-cap bank stocks trading near 52-week highs." 𝕏
• @KobeissiLetter (≈867 likes): cites data — "BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator is up to 9.6, the highest since December 2020; investor appetite for stocks has rarely been stronger." (Objective, with an implicit overheating warning.) 𝕏

Single Names

Bullish: @PatrickMoorhead backs $INTC ("crushed earnings, deserved victory lap," ≈87 likes); @SKundojjala frames $STM as an "AI-datacenter accelerating recovery" story (≈32 likes).

Bearish / Cautious: @TheAutonomyGuy dissects Tesla — "record revenue but profit fell apart: operating income −57%, FCF negative at −$1.09B" (≈1 like); @Charlesforless: "Alphabet delivered a strong quarter, but higher AI capex revived the question, and Tesla flagged more than $25B of 2026 capex" (≈1 like).

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

• US indices / earnings season: Buzz well above normal — the week's marquee night. Sentiment clearly bearish; both the broad sweep and macro KOLs centered on "capex isn't free" and "bond market flashing red," roughly 3:7 bull:bear. Drivers: Tesla/Alphabet earnings + 10Y through 4.70% + oil near $100. Mood weakened vs. the prior day, with the extreme optimism of a 9.6 BofA Bull & Bear reading now being corrected.
• Tesla $TSLA: The single most-discussed name of the session; sentiment lopsidedly bearish (~2:8), amplified by @unusual_whales's high-engagement "down nearly 14%." Retail's take was "Tesla always drops after earnings," but the profit/cash-flow deterioration this time exceeds the "habitual" dip.
• Semis ($STM / $INTC / $MU): Sharply divided. $STM sold off on soft guidance (bearish); $INTC drew analyst praise yet still closed lower (mixed); $MU rallied on Musk's on-call shout-out (bullish).
• HK / China assets: Extremely quiet on X — all three searches (China KOLs, macro, broad) found no substantive bull/bear posts on the Hang Seng's rise or Chinese ADRs; only @cnfinancewatch had A-share rotation content. The +1.28% Hang Seng strength stands in stark contrast to the near-silence in the English X world — "price action without the noise."

5. US Options Flow

Interpretation: ① IWM (Russell 2000) 5-day $280/$285 puts printed 300x+ vol/OI new positions — the day's strongest directional signal, with capital buying near-term small-cap downside protection/shorts, consistent with the risk-off tape; event-driven hedging, not speculation. ② MU's two largest premium flows are both puts ($1190, $1000 short-dated) at 97%–109% IV — the market pricing a large move into Micron's upcoming earnings/memory cycle; yet $800/$1000 calls were also active and $MU closed higher, so it's a two-sided battle. ③ After −14.5%, TSLA saw fresh 8-day $325/$350 calls (vol/OI 74–77), speculative bounce-buyers — though $300 puts were also being opened, leaving direction unresolved. Overall the market-wide Put/Call premium ratio of 1.29 (bearish) aligns with the down day and the surge in protective hedging.

Disclaimer: This report compiles public X posts and authoritative market data. All cited views belong to the respective accounts and do not represent this platform's position; figures within posts have been cross-checked against exchange close data, with single-stock moves per authoritative quotes. For informational/educational purposes only; not an offer to buy or sell any security nor personalized investment advice. Investors should exercise independent judgment and bear their own risk.