US & Hong Kong Markets Weekend Wrap (2026-08-03)

Report date: 2026-08-03 (Mon) | Data cutoff: 2026-08-02 19:00 ET | Prices: Eastmoney index + Yahoo/Tencent US close (Friday 7-31 session) | Sources: real-time X search (2026-07-30 to 08-02; broad sweep + macro/China/semis KOL groups + media whitelists, 8 queries)

Friday close: Dow +0.53% (52,485.03), S&P 500 +0.70% (7,489.72), Nasdaq +1.00% (25,373.85), Hang Seng +0.10% (25,884.43).

1. Key Events

1. Amazon's blowout re-ignites the AI trade: AWS grew 36.8% YoY, backlog hit $496B, AI ARR $25B (+67% QoQ); shares closed +15.32% ($271.58) Friday (@wallstengine, @unusual_whales, @TheTranscript_) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
2. Apple beat on both lines yet sank: EPS $2.02 vs $1.89 est., revenue $109.42B — but the stock closed -7.35% ($308.91), a textbook "beat-and-drop"; it was also Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO (@unusual_whales, @TheTranscript_) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
3. Market prices a September HIKE for the first time: the FOMC held but three officials dissented in favor of +25bp; Kalshi priced a 53% chance of a September hike, rising to a record 60% over the weekend — new Chair Kevin Warsh's first move may be a hike, not a cut (@DeItaone, @KobeissiLetter) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
4. Warsh weighs fewer FOMC meetings: per NYT, the new Fed Chair is considering reducing the number of scheduled policy meetings; no specific number proposed (@unusual_whales, @wallstengine) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
5. Earnings carnage: same-night reporters Roblox closed -26.85%, Reddit -20.99% (despite beating on revenue/EPS/EBITDA), GoDaddy -16.70% (@wallstengine, @eWhispers) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
6. Weekend geopolitics turn: President Trump called off strikes on Iran; US futures rose Sunday (S&P futures +0.5% per @KobeissiLetter; futures are pre-market indications, Monday's close is definitive) 𝕏
7. Tesla China-spinoff saga: WSJ reported Tesla weighs selling its China business to pave the way for a potential SpaceX merger; Musk dismissed it as "fake news"; shares closed +0.76% ($311.21) (@Reuters) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
8. Shein discloses financials ahead of its Hong Kong float: Breakingviews argues Western pushback against its model may have collapsed the valuation to ~$10B (@Reuters) 𝕏

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reporting

• AMZN call details: CFO — "We added over $4.6 billion in revenue quarter over quarter... our backlog stands at $496 billion" (@TheTranscript_) 𝕏
• Microsoft/Meta aftershocks: post-earnings Thursday pre-market MSFT +10%, META -10% (@TheTranscript_); by Friday's close MSFT added +3.02% ($464.72) and META recovered +3.28% ($556.71) — closes from exchange snapshots, not post-embedded numbers 𝕏
• Inflation: Core PCE at 3.3% YoY, second-highest since October 2024 (@KobeissiLetter) 𝕏
• China July high-frequency data: China Beige Book — US-bound shipments fell outright for the first time in months; factory activity decelerated (employment worst); retail fell both MoM and YoY; also flagged "Chinese stocks on track for worst month in decade" (@ChinaBeigeBook) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• China EV July deliveries: Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto all posted sequential declines while Leapmotor and Zeekr hit new highs (@CnEVPost) 𝕏
• Other: Shanghai & HK government-backed investors launch a $76M sci-tech fund (@yicaichina) 𝕏; China to quicken power buildout in H2 as new industries lift demand (@yicaichina) 𝕏; UK film producers urge intervention in the Paramount–Warner merger (@Reuters) 𝕏

Opinion / ratings

• Goldman Sachs raises AMZN target to $375: accelerating AWS, custom-chip momentum, 2026 capex to $220B, ads +26% (via @DeItaone) 𝕏
• Morgan Stanley on AWS: 36.8% growth above expectations, ~52% incremental margins, backlog +$132B QoQ (via @wallstengine) 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

US macro / broad market

Bearish / cautious

• @KobeissiLetter (≈2.9k likes / 300 reposts): "The market now believes Kevin Warsh's first policy move as Fed Chair will be a rate hike... Without a major crisis, rate cuts are distant at best. We can't afford a return of 5%+ inflation." 𝕏
• @charliebilello (≈429 likes): "The 30-Year US Treasury Yield ended the month at 5.27%, its highest level since July 2007... the bond market reveals the truth." 𝕏
• @biancoresearch (≈330 likes): "What the market wants to bring yields down is a commitment to getting inflation under control. You want mortgage rates down; HIKE(!) the funds rate." 𝕏

Neutral

• @AswathDamodaran (≈301 likes): S&P flat on the month, 10Y up from 4.45% to 4.74%; index ERP at 4.23% entering August, expected return inching up to 8.97% 𝕏
• @TimmerFidelity (≈47 likes): S&P earnings growth estimates up ~300bps this quarter — "relatively modest but logical," partly GAAP-accounting-driven 𝕏

Tech / semiconductors

Bullish

• @jukan05 (≈530 likes / 117k views): "The reason Apple beats expectations is that it practically steals NAND from Kioxia" — a storage-cost moat; also via Bloomberg: Moonshot AI's Kimi built a 20,000-chip Nvidia cluster through Alibaba (≈423 likes) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @SKundojjala (≈59 likes): semicap "service business outgrew equipment at most semicaps and guided to grow 12-17%... Service business is the real-time signal" — bullish memory shortage and WFE through 2028 𝕏
• @dnystedt: TSMC 3nm seen at 180k wafer starts/month by early Q4 and 2nm at 100k wpm by year-end, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom vying for capacity 𝕏
• @zinascorner (minimal engagement): RDDT was "irrationally dumped" on a 0.6% sequential DAU dip plus CEO traffic comments — a minority short-term bounce call

China assets / Hong Kong

Bearish / cautious

• @HAOHONG_CFA (≈56 likes): tech-stock adjustment window may last until late August; market still deleveraging, index weights concentrated in a few giants; classic bubble bursts often retrace two-thirds or more — "already dropped ~50%, further downside cannot be ruled out"; separately calls KOSPI/semis an "epic bubble crash" (his personal assessment) 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @michaelxpettis (≈398 likes / 104 reposts): China's low consumption share is structural, requiring income redistribution to households — both paths costly and unlikely to happen fast; postponing adjustment risks a Japan-1991-2008-style slowdown 𝕏

Bullish

• @ShanghaiMacro (≈242 likes): "When China solves the chip issue, it's game over — energy, data centers, talent and data gaps already solved; only chips remain the blocker, with Huawei catching up" 𝕏
• @cnfinancewatch (≈21 likes, lean-bullish): HK internet ETFs "may offer some opportunity"; HK biotech and consumer names worth watching 𝕏

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

• US equities: buzz well above normal — mega-cap earnings super-week (MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN across two nights) plus the post-Warsh "hike repricing." Broad-sweep sentiment ran roughly 70/30 bullish, with AMZN and the reignited AI trade dominating the bull case; bears clustered around rates (30Y at 5.27%, September hike priced at 60%) and the "beat-and-still-punished" valuation worry (AAPL/RDDT/RBLX as exhibits). Versus mid-week, mood shifted from "waiting on earnings" to "extreme single-stock dispersion + hawkish macro."
• Hong Kong / China assets: retail-level HK chatter on X was notably thin (almost no Hang Seng-specific bull/bear posts in the broad sweep); institutional/KOL tone skewed bearish — Hao Hong's "adjustment into late August" and China Beige Book's "worst month in a decade" set the baseline, offset only by the AI-catch-up narrative (@ShanghaiMacro) and scattered dip-buying talk in HK internet/biotech. The Hang Seng's +0.10% Friday close sits in mild tension with the cautious talk.
• China EVs: July deliveries drove a discussion round — the top three (Nio/Xpeng/Li) all down sequentially vs record highs at Leapmotor/Zeekr, read mostly as "the pecking order is being reshuffled."

5. US Options Flow

Post-close scan of 162 liquid names (as of 07-31 after hours). Market-wide put/call premium ratio = 0.60 — net bullish.

Deep dives

1. AMZN Call $240 (110d), vol/OI = 10.5: unlike the 19-day $250 line (0.8), this $110M premium is almost entirely fresh opening, with expiry spanning the next earnings cycle — paying 36% IV for medium-term upside after a +15% day, aligned with Goldman's $375 target narrative.
2. SPY Put $635 (60d), vol/OI = 216.6, plus the IWM put cluster: rare-sized fresh OTM index put opening (~-15% from $747). Against a 60% September-hike pricing and the 30Y through 5.27%, this reads as institutions buying macro tail insurance under the single-stock euphoria — consistent, not contradictory, with the 0.60 P/C.
3. INTC Put $110 (167d, IV 78%): strike far above spot (~$89-90), $52.7M premium and 78% IV — the market is pricing extreme two-way movement in Intel over the next six months; INTC closed -1.02% Friday, so this looks like deep protection or a synthetic short worth tracking via open interest.

Bottom line: single-name premium flow leans heavily to calls (P/C 0.60, led by AMZN/MSFT), while index and small-cap products (SPY/IWM/TLT/XLF/EEM) saw uniform fresh put opening — a "long stocks, hedge the index" barbell matching strong earnings against a hawkish rate turn.

Disclaimer: This report is compiled from public information and third-party data for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Views quoted from X posts belong to their authors; market data is subject to exchange records. Investing involves risk.