US & Hong Kong Market Update (2026-09-02)

Report date: 2026-09-02 | Data cutoff: US close 2026-09-01 ET / HK close 2026-09-01 Sources: real-time X (Twitter) search via grok-x (from 2026-08-31) + exchange closing quotes (Eastmoney/Tencent Securities) + post-close US options flow scan All price and percentage figures come from exchange closing data; X posts are used only for events, views and sentiment.

1. Key Events

1. US indices closed broadly lower, Nasdaq worst: Dow 52,766.88 (-0.79%), S&P 500 7,631.47 (-0.71%), Nasdaq Composite 26,099.77 (-1.03%). @nakamuraya's closing tally also cited the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) at 11,288.61, -2.13% (index not in our authoritative snapshot; cited as reported). 𝕏

2. Treasury yields were the day's dominant variable: @CNBC reported the 10-year yield rose 3bp to 4.788%, the highest since Jan 14, 2025; @zerohedge cited an intraday 4.792% and said 30-year Treasuries are "on their worst run since 2006"; @DeItaone reported the 30-year reached 5.286%, erasing the entire post-intervention drop. 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³

3. Dell delivered a blowout print after the bell, but the stock fell during the session: @unusual_whales and @wallstengine reported $DELL FY27 Q2 revenue of $47.0B (est. $44.9B) and adjusted EPS of $7.04 (est. $4.92), with FY27 revenue guidance raised to $192.0B (est. $172.7B). Dell's regular-session close was $425.00, down 6.80%; earnings came after the close. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

4. Record AI orders at Dell: @TheTranscript_ quoted the CEO: "our AI server business where we booked a record $60.9 billion in orders... record $95 billion backlog." 𝕏

5. Credo beat after the close; the stock was hit hard during the day: @wallstengine reported $CRDO FY27 Q1 revenue of $479.0M (est. $472M), +114.7% YoY, adjusted EPS $1.20, and Q2 guidance of $525-535M vs. $516M consensus. CRDO nonetheless closed at $206.63, down 8.65% — the good news landed after the bell. 𝕏

6. Hang Seng weaker; China's August PMIs improved but stayed below 50: the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,329.73, -0.93%. @yicaichina reported manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, non-manufacturing PMI unchanged at 49, and composite PMI up to 49.5 from 49.3. 𝕏

7. Fosun files to spin off Club Med in Hong Kong: @yicaichina reported Fosun International has applied to list ClubMed Lifestyle Group on the HKEX, and that the group raised over CNY12bn (USD1.8bn) in H1 by divesting non-strategic real estate, hotel and minority assets. Fosun International (00656.HK) closed at HK$5.335, -3.96%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

[Factual] Dell earnings (multiple accounts merged) Primary sources @unusual_whales, @wallstengine, @financialjuice: EPS $7.04 vs. $4.92 est., revenue $46.9-47.0B vs. $44.5-44.9B est., FY27 revenue guidance $192B. @StockMKTNewz posted that "$DELL stock is up by almost 9% in after hours following its earnings" — this after-hours move is a post claim, not verified against an exchange close; for reference, the post-close options scan (19:39 ET) recorded a DELL reference price of $461.95 versus the official close of $425.00. Pre-market, @business (Bloomberg) noted "AI fever is powering Dell and HP to their best years in the stock market." HPQ closed at $31.32, +4.33%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³

[Factual] Rates @CNBC (10Y to 4.788%, highest since Jan 14, 2025), @zerohedge (10Y 4.792%; 30Y worst run since 2006) and @DeItaone (30Y intraday 5.286%, highest since Aug 18) all point the same way on the long end. @FirstSquawk separately reported the 10-year German Bund yield hit a 15-year high, indicating the pressure is not US-specific. 𝕏

[Factual] Hong Kong & China assets Beyond the PMI and Fosun items above, @CnEVPost reported Momenta's first results since its Hong Kong listing: H1 revenue +76% YoY, gross margin 73.2%, adjusted loss narrowed to CNY14.1M. 𝕏

[View] @biancoresearch: the S&P 500's forward P/E has fallen from 25 to 21 this year and is "fairly average for the post-COVID period" — i.e. valuation is not the current problem. 𝕏

[View] @LizAnnSonders (Charles Schwab): the 10-year closed out August at its highest since January 2025 while the rolling one-year yield/equity correlation moved further into negative territory — rising rates are again a drag on stocks. 𝕏

[Data] @eWhispers listed $NIO among the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of August 31. 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

Macro and index level

Bullish / constructive

• @RyanDetrick (Carson Group) (≈112 likes, 14.8k views): sticking with the out-of-consensus no-cut call — "we continue to see reasons to expect higher rates... Stay overweight equities, underweight bonds." 𝕏
• @biancoresearch (≈66 likes, 15.0k views): forward P/E down from 25 to 21, back to the post-COVID average — valuation gives no reason to sell. 𝕏

Bearish / cautious

• @KobeissiLetter (≈5.7k likes, 727k views): "12 days since US Treasury intervention... the 10Y Note Yield is now just 2 basis points away from its highest level since 2007. The bond market appears to be completely ignoring the US Treasury." 𝕏
• @KobeissiLetter (≈4.6k likes, 434k views): "Yields just won't stop... 10Y pushing into 4.80%, its highest since January 2025... 7% mortgages are back... markets are expecting a September rate hike." 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @KobeissiLetter (≈3.5k likes, 392k views): "US annual interest expense is up to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue... a record $1.25 trillion... The US debt crisis is in uncharted territory." 𝕏
• @KobeissiLetter (≈1.1k likes, 185k views): "The median 63-day correlation between individual S&P 500 stocks and the index itself is down to +0.10, the lowest on record... The market is more concentrated than ever." 𝕏
• @charliebilello (≈303 likes, 45.7k views): "US National Debt has increased by $715 billion since July 1 while the 10-Year Treasury yield has jumped from 4.48% to 4.75%... swapping longer-maturity debt for shorter-maturity debt doesn't solve the underlying problem." 𝕏
• @RyanDetrick (≈340 likes, 25.9k views): "S&P 500 still consolidating above the June peak, but the A/D line is near a big level. Should the A/D line break, it could be a warning the June peak won't hold." 𝕏

Single names

Bullish

• @JonahLupton on $CRDO (≈22 likes): "Another strong report from $CRDO... Revenues were up +114% YoY... the big ramp is coming in the second half of FY2027." Note: CRDO's regular session closed -8.65%; earnings came after the bell. 𝕏
• @epictrades1 on $DELL (≈9 likes): "booked $60.9B of AI orders in this quarter, the most in company history." 𝕏
• @arcus_xyz on $DELL (≈9 likes): "Revenue: $47.0B vs $44.9B est, up 58% YoY... AI server orders hit a record $60.9B." 𝕏
• @jan_dekkers on $NIO (≈5 likes): "EVERYONE IS LOOKING AT THE WRONG NUMBER... opex as a share of revenue went down, 20.4% this quarter against 21.1%... ASP IS $40,000 NOW... Vehicle margin held at 18.5%." Note: $NIO closed at $4.06, -4.02%. 𝕏
• @FelipeGuirao on $MRNA (≈7 likes): said $MRNA triggered his momentum-breakout entry. $MRNA closed at $154.27, +9.93%, among the strongest large-cap gainers of the day. 𝕏

Bearish / cautious

• @CheddarFlow (≈75 likes): "$TSLA & $NVDA have the most BEARISH flow so far today." $TSLA closed $356.09, -3.22%; $NVDA closed $217.44, -1.39%. 𝕏
• @spotgamma (≈188 likes): relaying Goldman data — "call skews at highs while puts at lows," i.e. upside is priced expensively while downside protection is comparatively cheap, a classic chase-the-rally skew that also makes tail hedges affordable. 𝕏
• @spotgamma (≈66 likes): the large VXN-VIX divergence from June's tech melt-up "is now back to the mean" after July's tech pullback. 𝕏
• @USDailyDinero (≈5 likes), a retail sentiment sample: "My Portfolio: -2.87%... Rough day." 𝕏

Hong Kong KOL views: none of the three search passes (broad search, China-assets handle list, media whitelist) surfaced any KOL bull/bear commentary on the Hang Seng or the Hong Kong market in the past 24 hours. This subsection is left empty rather than filled.

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

US indices: chatter volume was clearly above normal, but the focus was bonds, not stocks. @KobeissiLetter's multiple Treasury posts drew over 1.3 million combined views — the day's single highest-engagement content — and the framing that "markets are expecting a September rate hike" is a marked reversal from the prevailing cut narrative of prior sessions. The macro cohort skewed bearish (Kobeissi, Bilello, LizAnnSonders all pointing to rate pressure), with @RyanDetrick the clearest dissenter still overweight equities.

AI hardware chain (DELL/CRDO/HPQ): buzz exploded after the close and dominated single-name discussion. The notable feature is a sharp dislocation between sentiment and price — both companies beat handsomely after the bell (Dell's $60.9B AI orders, Credo's +114.7% revenue growth), yet their official closes were -6.80% and -8.65% respectively, while HPQ bucked the tape at +4.33%. Nearly all bullish X commentary formed post-close and does not describe the day's closing prices; readers should mind the timing. Semis were broadly heavy: $MU -2.64%, $AMD -2.36%, $AVGO -0.18%, $NVDA -1.39%.

Hong Kong and China assets: engagement was far below the US, with essentially only media accounts posting factual items (PMI, Fosun spin-off, Momenta results) and no explicit directional calls — effectively an attention vacuum. Fundamentally all three August PMI readings improved sequentially but manufacturing and non-manufacturing remain below 50 (49.8 / 49.0), while the Hang Seng closed -0.93%, with Tencent -2.56%, Alibaba-W -3.33%, SMIC -2.69%, Li Auto-W -1.59%, and Xiaomi relatively resilient at -0.22%. The marginal data improvement failed to translate into price support, looking more like collateral damage from the global risk-appetite squeeze driven by US long-end yields.

5. US Options Flow

(Post-close scan of 162 liquid underlyings, 19:39 ET, 2026-09-01)

Deeper reads

1. DELL — textbook event-driven earnings flow. The two 17-day calls carried roughly $74.3M of combined premium, the largest in the scan, at 84-85% IV — the highest implied vol in the table outside META, meaning the market explicitly priced a large post-earnings gap. Note the vol/OI ratios of only 0.7 and 1.0: this is not purely new positioning but a large-scale repositioning/roll of existing books into the print. The direction proved right: the stock closed at $425.00 (-6.80%), and after the record $60.9B AI order figure landed, the reference price at scan time had recovered to $461.95.

2. IWM — Russell 2000 downside protection was the day's most crowded trade. The $275/$285/$290 10-day puts carried over $72M in combined premium; the $275 line showed a vol/OI of 282.7 (just 588 contracts open against 166,251 traded), i.e. almost entirely opened that day. With the 10-year at 4.79% and Kobeissi flagging September hike pricing, this is insurance on the most rate-sensitive part of the equity market — a macro hedge, not a single-name punt.

3. QQQ's two-sided structure. New put positioning clustered at $665/$690/$695 (vol/OI 42.0, 3.9 and 16.6), yet the 108-day $725 call also drew $32.14M of premium at vol/OI 2.5. Buying near-dated protection while keeping longer-dated upside is the classic "won't go naked long, won't go to cash" institutional posture — directionally consistent with @spotgamma's relayed Goldman observation of high call skew and low put skew.

Overall: market-wide put/call premium ratio at 1.12 (>1 = bearish tilt), with puts modestly ahead — consistent with a broad index decline and a long-end yield breakout, but only moderate in intensity: measured downside hedging rather than panic.

Disclaimer: This report is compiled from publicly available information and third-party data sources for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or any offer to buy or sell securities, and it does not take into account any individual's financial situation or objectives. Content from X reflects the views of the posting accounts, not those of this platform; figures embedded in posts are unverified and used only as event and sentiment signals. Market data comes from exchange closing snapshots and may be delayed or contain errors. Investing involves risk; decisions are your own.