US & Hong Kong Market Update (2026-07-28)

Report date: 2026-07-28 | Data as of US market close Mon Jul 27 (ET) / HK close Jul 27 Sources: real-time X (Twitter) search via Grok (past 24h) + exchange closing quotes (Eastmoney/Tencent) + end-of-day US options flow scan. X posts are used for events and opinions only; all price moves verified against authoritative market data.

1. Key Events

1. Nvidia fell 4.99% to $196.51 on "circular financing" fears: per @FirstSquawk, Nvidia is pursuing over $750B in AI deals — including a $500B+ SK Group partnership and up to $250B in financing support for OpenAI — sparking warnings that Nvidia "may be financing its own future chip demand and inflating AI valuations"; its debt-protection (CDS) costs hit a record high. Nvidia defended the strategy as essential to building global AI infrastructure. 𝕏
2. China DUV lithography report hammered chip equipment and semis: per @DeItaone, a state-backed Chinese firm has begun mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, raising fears of reduced reliance on ASML and Western suppliers — ASML -5.80% ($1,655.26), AMD -5.17%, Applied Materials -3.61%, SMH ETF -2.25%; in storage, SanDisk (SNDK) plunged 11.02% ($1,278.23) and Micron fell 2.25% ($900.20). 𝕏
3. Apple reclaimed the top spot as the world's most valuable company, passing Nvidia; AAPL +1.17% to $336.91 (≈$4.95T market cap), per @CNBC. 𝕏
4. Reuters: Nvidia to invest $5B in Ilya Sutskever's AI startup, per a source. 𝕏
5. Mega central-bank and earnings week: FOMC Wednesday (plus PCE, GDP), BoE Thursday, BoJ Friday; Microsoft/Meta report Wednesday, Apple/Amazon Thursday. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
6. Jensen Huang to meet lawmakers in DC this week (Politico, citing an Nvidia spokesperson). 𝕏
7. Hong Kong outperformed: Hang Seng +0.98% to 25,207; Hang Seng Tech +1.57% to 4,702; Xiaomi +7.34% (HK$28.68), Tencent +1.93% (HK$443.0), Alibaba +0.91%. (Quotes: Eastmoney)
8. US indices split: Dow +0.51% (52,210), S&P 500 flat at +0.02% (7,413), Nasdaq -0.18% (24,932) — the chip selloff was offset by falling oil and defensive sectors.

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reporting

• Nvidia's $750B AI deals and record CDS: @FirstSquawk's newswire thread detailed the mega-deals and investor warnings; separately, "S&P 500 wobbles as chipmaker selloff offsets oil decline, with semiconductor gauge down 2.2% as Nvidia debt-protection costs surge and ASML tumbles on Chinese chipmaking machine report." 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• China's DUV breakthrough: @DeItaone's post (≈2.4k likes, the day's most-shared newswire item) flagged that domestic DUV mass production could weaken future ASML/Western equipment sales and undermine US export restrictions. 𝕏
• Nvidia's $5B SSI investment: @Reuters (source-based). 𝕏
• Regulatory engagement: both @FirstSquawk and @financialjuice reported Huang's DC meetings this week. 𝕏
• Earnings/central-bank calendar: @eWhispers, @TheTranscript_, @CNBC and @zerohedge all previewed the MSFT/META (Wed) and AAPL/AMZN (Thu) reports plus the FOMC. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

Opinion/interpretation

• @biancoresearch (Bianco Research): several of last week's events "revolved around financial stress, prompting market players to wonder whether it would force the Fed to be more dovish." 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

Bullish

• @RyanDetrick (Carson Group chief strategist, ≈628 likes / 62 reposts): "Retail is outright panicked right now, even though the NYSE composite is at it's highest weekly close ever. It doesn't make a ton of sense, but my take remains this is quite bullish." 𝕏
• @RyanDetrick (≈321 likes): the S&P 500 advance/decline line "turned higher where you'd expect it to turn higher if you think we are still in a bull market" — breadth intact. 𝕏
• @cnfinancewatch (≈5 likes, HK focus): HK innovative pharma and HK internet names show the strongest momentum; "key directions: innovative drugs, HK internet/tech," calling for a meaningful rebound. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

Bearish / Cautious

• @jukan05 (semis KOL, ≈896 likes / 100k views — the day's hottest semis post): "the factors currently weighing on the market are not new negatives. The semiconductor cycle peaking, deteriorating profitability due to excessive CAPEX..." — a capex-cycle doom loop argument. 𝕏
• @charliebilello (Creative Planning, ≈321 likes): "At the start of the year, the bond market was pricing in 2 Fed rate CUTS. Today it's pricing in 1 to 2 Fed rate HIKES. That's a 1% swing in expectations." 𝕏
• @charliebilello (≈304 likes): "The 30-Year US Treasury Yield ended last week at 5.17%, its highest weekly close since July 2007... the bond market reveals the truth." 𝕏
• @TimmerFidelity (Fidelity global macro head, ≈29 likes): "the pressure is on for the FOMC to back up its rhetoric by raising rates soon. The twin tail risks of market concentration and the return of the Fed Model are both on display." 𝕏
• @ValueNotDeadYet (retail, minimal engagement): "The trade is dead $MU $NVDA" — end-of-trade talk emerging in the retail long tail. 𝕏

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

• Nvidia / semis: by far the highest buzz, well above normal — the "circular financing" and China-DUV negatives stacked, with bearish share of voice around 60%, a clear deterioration from last week's "crowded but bullish" AI consensus. Strategists like Detrick still push the breadth-is-fine bull case, so the split widened rather than flipping outright bearish.
• Storage (SNDK/MU): sentiment cooled sharply from last week's NAND-price-hike bullish consensus; SNDK's -11% spawned "is the trade over?" posts and panicky retail wait-and-see.
• Hong Kong: moderately elevated buzz, sentiment skewed bullish — HSI and HS Tech rose against the US chip rout, Xiaomi's +7.3% fueled tech enthusiasm, and innovative pharma/internet were named momentum leaders. No influential bearish HK voices found.
• Macro / broad market: the FOMC-plus-mega-cap-earnings "super week" dominates positioning talk; the bond market's hike repricing (30Y at 5.17%) is the bears' core exhibit. Overall tone shifted from bullish to neutral-defensive.

5. US Options Flow

(End-of-day scan of 162 liquid names, as of Jul 27; market-wide put/call premium ratio = 1.21, tilting bearish)

Deep dives:

1. INTC's two-strike call buying — the biggest contrarian trade on a semis bloodbath day. Intel slipped just 0.70% ($91.67), far outperforming the group, while a $190M deep-ITM $70 call block (vol/OI 7.8 = heavy new positioning) and a $64.7M mid-dated $97.5 call printed. Deep-ITM calls typically serve as leveraged stock substitutes; 83% IV means the market is pricing a big move. With Huang heading to DC and the domestic-manufacturing policy narrative, this reads as event-driven medium-term accumulation, not speculation.
2. SMH 4-day puts, ~155k contracts across two strikes (vol/OI ≈1.0, mixed new/old), struck 2–3% below spot ($546–548) — precisely covering the FOMC (Wed) plus MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN earnings window. This is institutions buying insurance against "one more leg down" in semis, not a trend short. Read together with MU's $950 put at 95% IV, options are pricing extreme near-term storage/semi volatility.
3. NVDA 2-day call sweeps ($195/$197.5/$202.5, vol/OI 53–102): all fresh same-day positioning, ≈$27M total premium — classic lottery-ticket bottom-fishing on a -5% day, betting on an oversold bounce rather than making a fundamental statement; it coexists with a $33M 25-day $200 put hedge, so short-term bulls and bears are trading blows.

Overall: a 1.21 put/call premium ratio plus protective SPY/SMH/MU flows point to a defensive stance — but the large new INTC and QQQ call positions show bearishness is not monolithic; the tape looks like "hedge the earnings week, bet on selective mispricings."

(Note: HK single-stock options are not covered; this section is US-only.)

Disclaimer: This report is compiled from public information and third-party data for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to trade. X posts reflect their authors' personal views only; prices are based on exchange closing data. Investing involves risk.