Yaoyang News · Aya X Pulse · US & HK Markets
US & HK Markets · Daily X Pulse
Published Monday, November 2, 2026 (Beijing time)
Today's Heat Board
Aya Heat Index: chatter (Reddit / Stocktwits / Eastmoney forums), trading anomalies (relative volume, price move) and unusual options, scored 0-100 and updated after each close.
Bull/bear = share of Stocktwits posts their authors tagged Bullish / Bearish (last 72h); under 10 tagged posts shows "Few posts". No sentiment source for Hong Kong yet.
Tap a ticker to see its KOL chatter →
TickerHeatChgBull/Bear
1
Intel · Buzzing · Heavy volume · Big drop · Just reported
95-28.6%Mixed2
Reddit · Buzzing · Heavy volume · Big drop · Just reported
94-29.2%Mixed3
Advanced Micro Devices · Buzzing · Heavy volume · Big drop
84-10.9%Bull 79%4
NVIDIA · Buzzing
82-4.2%Bull 89%5
Sandisk · Buzzing · Heavy volume · Big drop · Just reported
82-13.5%Bull 93%6
Strategy · Chatter surge · Just reported
75-7.8%Bear 63%7
AppLovin · Heavy volume · Big drop
74-10.4%Bull 72%8
Dell Technologies · Big drop
73-10.8%Mixed9
Palantir Technologies
72-6.3%Bull 65%10
Amazon.com · Buzzing · Heavy volume · Just reported
71-1.4%Bull 90%US & Hong Kong Weekend Recap (2026-11-02)
Report date: 2026-11-02｜X search window: 2026-10-29 to 11-01｜Latest session: US and HK both 2026-10-30 (Fri) Sources: Live X posts retrieved via grok-x (broad search, macro, semis and China-asset KOL groups, core newswire/media, China-asset media; 9 calls); the system-provided official closing snapshot, Aya heat board and options scan; eastmoney quotes. X posts are used only for events, views and sentiment. Prices and percentage moves quoted inside posts are not used.
Market close (Fri 10-30): Dow 51,770.31 (-1.09%), S&P 500 7,580.07 (-1.82%), Nasdaq 25,437.00 (-2.86%), Nasdaq-100 28,384.85 (-3.46%), SOXX -8.24%. Hong Kong went the other way: Hang Seng 23,294.42 (+1.46%), Hang Seng Tech 3,754.90 (+0.29%). The US selloff was concentrated in semis and the AI chain. Intel and Reddit reported after Thursday's close, so Friday's regular session was the first full reaction.
1. Key Events
- Intel fell 28.58% after earnings and was the most active US stock. Per @unusual_whales: Q3 EPS $0.52 vs. $0.40 est.; revenue $16.5B vs. $16.49B est. Per @SKundojjala: Q4 guide is $15.5B revenue at 38% gross margin, vs. 44.1% this quarter; 2026 gross capex is about $20B and will rise "strongly" in 2027. The market sold the guide, not the quarter. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
- Semis sold off broadly. AMD -10.88%, QCOM -11.12%, ARM -9.97%, MRVL -10.05%, SNDK -13.47%, NVDA -4.22%, SOXX -8.24%. @FactSet named Intel, Sandisk and Seagate among notable earnings-driven decliners and noted the pullbacks were not limited to hyperscalers. We found no media report explaining a specific catalyst for AMD, QCOM or ARM that day. 𝕏
- Reddit fell 29.22%, the biggest US decliner. @business reported Reddit plans to shift to a primarily logged-in experience to deepen engagement and improve its ad business. Per earlier earnings data, DAUs and the Q4 guide both missed; @MarketFrameHQ said the CEO blamed Google's AI search for sending less US traffic. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
- All three Mag 7 names reporting this week missed. @eWhispers: MSFT, GOOGL and AMZN all missed expectations. AMZN closed -1.41% Friday and GOOGL -1.40%. 𝕏
- Regeneron rose 13.33%, one of the top S&P gainers. @zerohedge reported that Q3 revenue and adjusted profit both beat Wall Street. Eli Lilly closed +3.19%. 𝕏
- Roblox, Twilio and Illumina also fell sharply after earnings. @zerohedge said Roblox engagement fell year over year after it rolled out stronger child-safety measures; RBLX closed -18.05%. Twilio beat but was repriced with the software sector; TWLO closed -15.24%. @wallstengine showed Illumina revenue of $1.13B, a miss, though it raised full-year guidance; ILMN closed -18.64%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
- Hong Kong rebounded Friday as money rotated into defensives and cyclicals. Mengniu +9.42%, COSCO Shipping +7.70%, Sinopec +6.22%, PetroChina +5.8%; SMIC -4.40%, Evergrande Property -17.72%. @cnfinancewatch said the US plans to restrict US data centers from buying Chinese compute components and is advancing humanoid-robot export controls, "hitting A-share AI hardware chain expectations." This has not been corroborated by major media. 𝕏
2. Institutional & Media Coverage
Factual reports
- Strategy (MSTR) Q3. Per @wallstengine: revenue $125.4M vs. $127.2M est., down 3% YoY; EPS $44.75, a large beat driven mainly by bitcoin fair-value marks; net income $19.53B; 848,517 BTC held. MSTR closed -7.84%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
- ServiceNow kept falling. @zerohedge reported its Q4 current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) forecast missed estimates. NOW closed -4.1% Friday, with discussion volume 4.3x normal. 𝕏
- GoDaddy rose 10.72%. Per @wallstengine: revenue $1.34B vs. $1.33B est.; EPS $2.08 vs. $1.85 est.; its AI product Airo is above a $100M annualized bookings run rate. 𝕏
- Twilio details. Per @wallstengine: revenue $1.56B vs. $1.51B est.; adjusted EPS $1.65 vs. $1.47 est.; FY26 guidance raised. The stock still sold off hard despite beating across the board. 𝕏
- Fed and markets. @FactSet said this week's Fed decision was a bit less of a "hawkish hold" than some expected, with focus on Warsh acknowledging tighter financial conditions, his view that the economy is not running too hot, and the dissent composition. 𝕏
- Hong Kong macro and regulation. @business reported Hong Kong's Q3 growth stayed robust, possibly setting up the strongest annual expansion in five years. It also reported China is sending senior regulators to address major global bankers in Hong Kong this week. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
Views / ratings
- @business (Bloomberg opinion): called the Amazon post-earnings drop "Another day, another investor overreaction" and said Amazon is well situated for robust cloud growth. 𝕏
- @TimmerFidelity (Fidelity): of 122 companies reported so far, 80% beat by an average 560 bps, but "Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth," and the cost of capital is rising. 𝕏
- We found no new sell-side rating or price-target changes.
3. KOL Bull & Bear Views
US · Broad market & AI trade
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| @KobeissiLetter (≈4.8k likes, 410 RTs, 401k views): "No, the AI Revolution is not 'over'." He noted the Nasdaq-100 is still up year to date and S&P 500 Q3 blended earnings growth is about +30.2%. 𝕏 | @KobeissiLetter (≈6.6k likes, 519 RTs, 615k views): said the timing of the selloff is noteworthy: market-implied odds of a Democratic midterm "sweep" rose from 65% to 72%, alongside high rates, $100+ oil and rising inflation. The post said the Nasdaq-100 was down nearly 5% intraday; it actually closed -3.46%. 𝕏 |
| @Wissadv (low engagement, neutral-to-bullish): reading the transcripts rather than the tape, "presque tous les chiffres opérationnels se sont améliorés" (almost all operating metrics improved), so the market overreacted. 𝕏 | @KobeissiLetter (≈3.7k likes, 391 RTs, 646k views): "The 'stealth' bear market is in full-swing." He said the "S&P 500 Excluding AI" hit a record high Friday while AI stocks fell more than 13% in October (his figures, not independently verified). 𝕏 |
| — | @KobeissiLetter (≈629 likes, 145k views): in October, tech stocks fell 1.2% on average the day after reporting, the weakest of any sector. 𝕏 |
US · Intel & semis
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| @PatrickMoorhead (≈483 likes, 51 RTs): Intel's five-year view has the server CPU TAM growing up to 5x, from $40B to $200B+; industry server CPU units grow 30%+ a year, with shortages into 2028. But "2027 investment year… FCF probably not positive." 𝕏 | @jukan05 (≈1.6k likes, 44 RTs): "Intel's earnings are absolute dogshit." 𝕏 |
| @PatrickMoorhead (≈171 likes): "A really good quarter… It's the guide." He put Q4 about $1.5B light on weaker PCs and scarce substrates; data center grew 78%, "That's AI, and it lasts." 𝕏 | @jukan05 (≈1.1k likes, 68 RTs): Intel badly underestimated how fast higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction. He also quoted Lip-Bu Tan's more upbeat line that industry supply stays constrained through 2027 and into 2028. 𝕏 |
| @PatrickMoorhead (≈50 likes): AMD keeps taking x86 server share, and its first Helios racks are already running at Meta. In another post (≈157 likes) he said TSMC is going out of its way to supply AMD wafers, so AMD's quarter carries less risk than Intel's. AMD actually closed -10.88%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏² | @RSDIntel (low engagement): listed October drops in AI and tech names, with Intel leading (the post's figures are not used). 𝕏 |
| @jukan05 (≈565 likes, 57 RTs): Samsung's earnings next year will be "phenomenal"; next year's HBM supply is already sold out, with pricing settled at target levels. 𝕏 | — |
| @MentoviaX (≈326 views), @tenet_research (≈325 views): the first argues a ~40% server CPU boom could drive an AMD beat; the second says AMD is above key moving averages and lists AMD and QCOM as reporting next week. 𝕏¹ 𝕏² | — |
US · Other hot names
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| — | @WallSt_Wiz (≈5 likes, 210 views): AMZN "Took another hit following earnings… despite continued strength… in AWS." 𝕏 |
| — | @PhatChin (≈87 views): MSTR weekly candle red; "Binance hack negatively affected all crypto names." The reported Binance hack is not verified by media in this search. 𝕏 |
Hong Kong
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| @Straits_Trader6 (≈4 likes, 289 views): expects HK to open lower Monday and then make a V-shaped rebound; names Xiaomi and Meituan and says HK forward PE has fallen to a very attractive risk/reward zone. 𝕏 | @cnfinancewatch (≈16 likes, 8.5k views): "The scariest A-share sector is optical communications. Another 8% and 16% drop will trigger two waves of margin calls." In another post (≈19 likes, 16.6k views) he argues US curbs on Chinese compute components will hit the AI hardware chain. 𝕏¹ 𝕏² |
| @Haoge_HK (≈212 views): also expects a lower open and possible V-shaped rebound Monday; says HK September exports jumped 64.9% and Hang Seng Tech trades at about 20x PE, near a 10-year low percentile (unverified). 𝕏 | @ansonze20181 (≈406 views): cites institutional stats: as of Oct 30, Hang Seng Tech fell 11.7% in October, southbound funds saw net outflows of about RMB 18B over 30 days, and short-selling was 19.41% of turnover (unverified). Another post says "Zhipu and MiniMax are doing even worse in HK." 𝕏¹ 𝕏² |
4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts
US: the top of the heat board is almost all big decliners.
- INTC (heat 95, -28.6%, 4.5x relative volume): on the board because the guide missed. Self-tagged posts are 57% bullish / 43% bearish (23 posts), up from 62% bearish (21 posts) in the prior edition, a shift toward buying the dip. Among KOLs, @PatrickMoorhead's long-term optimism is set against @jukan05's near-term bearishness.
- RDDT (heat 94, -29.2%, discussion 1.9x normal): DAUs and guide missed; 48% bullish / 52% bearish (21 posts), a near even split.
- AMD (heat 84, -10.9%), NVDA (heat 82, -4.2%), SNDK (heat 82, -13.5%): dragged down by the semis selloff (SOXX -8.24%). Self-tagged posts are 79% / 89% / 93% bullish (24 / 28 / 29 posts), showing strong retail dip-buying. We found no posts explaining a specific catalyst that day.
- MSTR (heat 75, discussion 2.2x normal): earnings plus crypto weakness; 63% bearish (30 posts), the most bearish of the top 8.
- APP (-10.4%, 3.3x relative volume), DELL (-10.8%): mainly heavy-volume declines; we found no matching X discussion.
Hong Kong: the index rebounded but stocks diverged sharply. Mengniu (heat 81, +9.4%), COSCO (+7.7%) and Sinopec (+6.2%, discussion 3x normal) rallied on heavy volume. AI hardware and semis kept falling, including Victory Giant (-9.6%), SMIC (-4.4%) and GigaDevice (-7.9%), consistent with the "US curbs on Chinese compute components" narrative from @cnfinancewatch. All HK long/short data is marked "no data source," so we give no ratios. We found no X discussion explaining the Mengniu or COSCO rallies.
5. US Options Flow
| Ticker | Side | Strike / Expiry | Vol / OI | Premium | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Call | $180 / 75d | 74,305 / 44,718 | $240M | Deep-ITM calls, largest premium of the day |
| NVDA | Call | $190 / 47d | 69,078 / 80,041 | $150M | ITM calls, likely a roll |
| INTC | Call | $55 / 75d | 41,717 / 9,164 | $54.65M | New ITM calls opened on the crash day |
| QQQ | Put | $685 / 12d | 37,772 / 3,274 | $45.63M | vol/OI 11.5, fresh hedges |
| QQQ | Put | $725 / 12d | 16,015 / 17,139 | $56.9M | Deep-ITM puts |
| MSTR | Call | $135 / 5d | 24,311 / 220 | $9.97M | vol/OI 110, IV 84% |
| SMCI | Call | $34.5 / 5d | 39,395 / 515 | $6.82M | IV 127%, short-term speculation |
| SPY | Put | $675 / 110d | 12,444 / 140 | $12.32M | Long-dated tail protection |
Takeaways:
- INTC: after the 28.58% drop, volume in the 75-day $55 call was 4.6x open interest, meaning heavy new positioning, at 58% IV. With the stock near $65 the strike is already in the money, which looks like institutions using options as a defined-risk dip buy or stock replacement after the bad guide. That lines up with @PatrickMoorhead's "the quarter was good, the guide was the problem" view, though it could also be short hedging.
- NVDA: on a -4.22% day, the $180 and $190 ITM calls drew about $390M of combined premium. The $190 line traded below its open interest (vol/OI 0.9), so it looks more like rolling existing positions than fresh chasing. Separately, the 5-day $207.5 call hit vol/OI 94.1, a short-term bet on a quick rebound, matching NVDA's 89% bullish retail sentiment on the heat board.
- QQQ and SPY skewed to puts: heavy QQQ put volume across 12–47 day expiries, the $685 line at vol/OI 11.5, and the 110-day SPY $675 put at vol/OI 88.9 show money buying protection against further tech downside and the midterm and payrolls events. The QQQ $694 call (vol/OI 123.8) is more likely one leg of a spread or collar and should not be read as a bullish signal on its own.
Overall: the market-wide put/call premium ratio is 1.14, leaning bearish. Positioning combines index hedges with ITM call dip-buying in single names.
Week ahead (ET): Nov 2 10:00 ISM Manufacturing (est. 54.7) → Nov 3 US midterm elections → Nov 4 10:00 ISM Services (est. 54.9) → Nov 6 08:30 nonfarm payrolls (est. +63K, unemployment rate est. 4.2%, AHE m/m est. 0.3%) → Nov 6 10:00 UMich sentiment prelim (est. 47.8). All are forecasts and have not been released.
Disclaimer: This report compiles public X posts and public market data for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Views in posts do not represent this platform.
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This content is AI-generated from public posts on X (Twitter), for reference only and not investment advice. Investing involves risk.