US & Hong Kong Market Update (2026-11-04)

Report date: 2026-11-04｜X search window: 2026-11-02 to 11-03｜Latest session: US and HK both 2026-11-03 (Tue, US midterm Election Day) Sources:

• X posts: retrieved live via grok-x in 11 calls. These were 4 broad searches (US market, US single stocks, earnings movers, Hong Kong); one call each for the macro/strategy, semis/AI, software/cloud and China-asset KOL groups; and one each for core newswire/media and China-asset media.
• Market data: the system-provided official closing snapshot, Aya heat board and options scan, plus index and stock closes pulled from eastmoney.

X posts are used only for events, views and sentiment. Prices and percentage moves quoted inside posts are not used. Where the heat board and eastmoney closes differ, the eastmoney close is used.

Market close (Tue 11-03): a chip rebound ended the S&P 500's and Nasdaq's three-day losing streak. Hong Kong moved opposite to A-shares and closed modestly higher.

1. Key Events

1. AMD reported Q3 after the bell and beat on both revenue and EPS.
   • AMD closed the regular session +3.65%.
   • Per @MarketNews_Feed and @itsinsightio: revenue $13.38B vs. $13.08B est.; adjusted EPS $2.09 vs. ~$1.95–1.97 est.
   • Per @itsinsightio: data center revenue rose 97% to $8.5B; the Q4 revenue guide is ~$17B (±3%).
   • Posts disagree on the size of the after-hours move, which is not verified by an exchange snapshot.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
2. Super Micro (SMCI) reported FQ1 after the bell, beat big and raised its full-year guide. It closed the regular session +3.12%.
   • Per @StockSavvyShay: revenue $19.9B vs. $16.3B est.; EPS $1.81 vs. $1.62 est.; FY27 revenue guide $77B vs. $69B est.
   • Posts cite inconsistent consensus figures.
   • @KobeissiLetter reported a sharp after-hours gain; the size of the move is not verified.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
3. A chip rebound stopped the slide. Per @Trend__Rebel, Nvidia's market cap overtook Apple's. Checked against eastmoney data:
   • Nvidia closed +2.29%, for a market cap of about $4.99T.
   • Apple closed -1.90%, for a market cap of about $4.84T.
   • 𝕏
4. Bitcoin miners and AI compute landlords rallied hard.
   • Closes: RIOT +18.41%, CIFR +18.37%, HUT +15.90%, GLXY +15.35%, WULF +14.53%, CLSK +13.99%, CORZ +13.87%, IREN +11.08%.
   • @michaelsikand argued that the Texas governor race matters most for the AI trade. He said Abbott's 60%+ odds were one factor behind the neocloud and AI landlord rally. This is his view.
   • 𝕏
5. September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523M vs. 7.164M est. Per @LizAnnSonders: the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, and the hires rate rose to 3.4% from 3.3%. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
6. Earnings reactions split sharply: several companies met or beat estimates and still sold off.
   • Stevanato -28.62%: revenue missed, and management warned that 2027 GLP-1 drug-related volumes will be lighter than expected.
   • Dynatrace -14.58%: beat the quarter but cut its full-year profit outlook.
   • Gartner -13.29%: beat and raised its full-year outlook, but contract value grew just 2.5%.
   • Shopify -8.74%: its first revenue and GMV miss since 2022.
   • On the upside, Aehr +26.50%, Fabrinet +15.47% and Lattice +10.98% all beat on AI hardware (see Section 2).
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³ 𝕏⁴
7. In Hong Kong, optical modules and AI hardware fell hard while consumer names led.
   • Decliners: Innolight H-shares -10.92% (A-shares -12.69%), Kingboard Laminates -10.20%, Biren -9.46%, Montage -6.55%.
   • Gainers: JD +5.61%, Haidilao +6.43%, Trip.com +6.34%.
   • Per @0xcalyn and @zhaoge168, Innolight denied rumors such as major 800G order cuts.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
8. Oracle closed +5.86%, after falling on its financing the prior session. @INVESTEDD argued that the $20B stock-and-bond raise has now been priced: "Yesterday's drop came from fear of a surprise fundraise. Now the deal is set and done, so buyers are coming back." 𝕏

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reports

• AI hardware earnings
  • Lattice: @PatrickMoorhead called Q3 a "BEAT and raise." Revenue was $291.0M, up 118% YoY; FPGA alone was $251.9M, up 89%; the Q4 guide is $335M. He positions Lattice as the "AI rack's control plane." 𝕏
  • Fabrinet: @Stanisa15049173 cited 51% revenue growth and a 78% jump in data center sales. 𝕏
  • Aehr: @MDCTrades305 said Aehr posted a record quarter and raised guidance to $150M, yet Jefferies still cut its price target. 𝕏
• What the decliners reported
  • Thomson Reuters (closed -9.87%): @checkcoula cited Q3 revenue of $1,833M, up 10%; adjusted EPS of $0.81; and a FY26 organic growth guide raised to 8.5–9.0%. "The sell-off was about 2027 margins, not the print." 𝕏
  • Sysco (-9.31%): @Just2Trade cited a sales miss and management guiding toward the low end of full-year sales growth. 𝕏
  • Zebra (-8.76%): @SiriusInvestor listed it among the biggest large-cap decliners; @Just2Trade said it beat but margins compressed. 𝕏
  • CVR Energy (-13.10%): @AlfaFinderUSA cited record Q3 EBITDA of $804M and a $4.2B purchase of two Marathon refineries. The news looks positive but the stock fell, and we found no explanation for the drop. 𝕏
  • Paymentus (-11.50%): @merlin_trader cited revenue up 19.8% and a record 41.9% adjusted EBITDA margin. We also found no explanation for this drop. 𝕏
• Pfizer: positive news, but the stock closed -2.18%. @Upward_Finance cited Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.87 vs. $0.72–0.73 est., revenue of $16.58B, and a full-year revenue guide raised to $62.0–64.0B. 𝕏
• Palantir closed -1.65% the day after earnings. @TechCrunch said Q3 was "crushing consensus expectations," but retail reaction was cool and the stock fell. 𝕏
• Semiconductor industry
  • Intel: @jukan05, citing media, said SK Hynix is in talks to lease part of Intel's New Albany, Ohio fab, or to form a JV with Intel and major US cloud companies; the fab reportedly already has approval to make memory chips. INTC closed +0.97%. 𝕏
  • Intel: @PatrickMoorhead said Intel's 14A 0.9 PDK is out and "that's a big deal." 𝕏
  • TSMC: @dnystedt said its future 1nm fabs will likely go to Tainan Science Park. 𝕏 @jukan05 said Sherman, Texas is in site-selection talks with TSMC for two initial fabs at $45B, potentially expanding to six fabs and $120B. 𝕏 The TSM ADR closed +1.55%.
• HK macro: @aystxdlzfhj cited Hong Kong Q3 GDP growth of 5.2% YoY (vs. 4.2% in Q2) and HK$16B of southbound net buying on the day. Neither figure has been checked against official data. 𝕏
• China policy: @cnfinancewatch said the PBOC and CSRC will hold meetings to refine the RMB 800B market-stabilization tools. 𝕏 He also noted the rollout of a 20-point consumption-infrastructure package. 𝕏
• Not found in this search: coverage from the China-asset media group (@yicaichina and others), and any midterm vote-count results. Voting was still under way as of the US close.

Views / ratings

• @KobeissiLetter: this is more than a "correction in tech stocks"; the market is pricing a major political shift, with a "near-80% chance of a Democrat 'sweep'." 𝕏
• @TimmerFidelity: the S&P 500 equal-weight index has nearly caught up with cap-weight, and broadening "puts some doubt on the notion that a growth scare has overtaken the zeitgeist." 𝕏
• @_AlphaStreet: AppLovin rose after UBS maintained its Buy rating. APP closed +7.28%. 𝕏
• @PatrickMoorhead: on Marvell–Lumentum, "Right strategy, big price." MRVL closed +0.33% and LITE -0.62%. 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

US · Broad market & macro

US · Semis & AI hardware

US · Software, platforms & consumer

Hong Kong

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

US: the focus shifted from the prior session's M&A and financing dilution to earnings delivery. 5 of the top 8 heat-board names had just reported or were reporting that evening.

• PLTR: retail self-tags are 89% bullish, but the stock has fallen two days in a row. Debate on X centers on slowing contract growth and valuation.
• AMD: 46% bullish in the prior edition (24 posts), now 41%; sentiment stayed cautious going into the print.
• ORCL: split evenly in the prior edition (16 posts), now 80% bullish (10 posts).
• APP: discussion at 4.7x normal (ranked #11), the biggest jump in discussion volume.
• INTC: bullish share rose from 67% to 77% (31 posts).
• TSLA: bullish share recovered from 25% to 52% (25 posts).

Hong Kong: the optical and AI hardware chain that led the prior session reversed, and money rotated into consumer and platform names.

• Big decliners: Innolight (heat 84, -10.92%), Kingboard Laminates (80, -10.20%), Biren (76, -9.46%) and Montage (70, -6.55%). This group moved in step with weaker optical sentiment after the Marvell–Lumentum deal in the US, but only Innolight drew direct discussion on X.
• GenScript (-15.49%), BeOne (-4.80%): we found no explanation for either decline.
• Gainers: JD (83, +5.61%, discussion 3x normal), East Buy (74, +7.86%), Haidilao (+6.43%) and Trip.com (+6.34%, discussion 3x normal). X mentions were limited to market recaps; we found no specific catalyst.
• All HK long/short data is "no data source," so we give no ratios.

5. US Options Flow

Takeaways:

• MSFT: the 108-day $565 call is about 8% above spot. Volume ran nearly 130x open interest on $33.18M of premium, so these were mostly new positions. Microsoft closed +2.74%, but our X searches found no specific catalyst. The expiry spans the next earnings window, so this looks like a medium-term directional bullish bet rather than an event hedge.
• PLTR: on one side, multiple 3-day calls ($170, $172.5, $175, $180) traded at vol/OI of 24–27 and IV near 75%, a clear pattern of short-term speculation on a rebound this week after earnings. That matches the 89% bullish retail tags. On the other side, the 45-day $160 put traded 33,144 contracts, exactly matching open interest, which looks like a large protective position or spread. Big money is not as one-sided as retail.
• Index and semis: the QQQ $725 and $650 puts traded almost identical size (20,526 and 20,525 contracts), most likely a single buy-high/sell-low put spread hedging a drawdown into 1Q next year. New positions in the 3-day SMH $482.5 put fit event-hedging demand around AMD's print that evening. RIOT's 249% IV shows the market is pricing continued violent swings after the miner rally. These readings are inferences from the data.

Overall: the market-wide put/call premium ratio is 1.16, still bearish but well down from 1.70 in the prior edition, as Election Day hedging demand cooled.

Week ahead (ET; all are forecasts and have not been released):

• Nov 4 10:00: ISM Services PMI (est. 54.8)
• Nov 5 08:30: initial jobless claims (est. 197K)
• Nov 6 08:30: nonfarm payrolls (est. +65K); unemployment rate est. 4.2%; AHE m/m est. 0.3%
• Nov 6 10:00: UMich sentiment prelim (est. 48.1)

Midterm vote counts are expected to come in overnight.

Disclaimer: This report compiles public X posts and public market data for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Views in posts do not represent this platform.