US & Hong Kong Market Update (2026-11-05)

Report date: 2026-11-05 (Thursday)｜Data cutoff: 16:15 ET, Nov 4, 2026｜X search window: Nov 3–4｜Latest session: Wednesday, Nov 4 for both US and HK, the day after the US midterm elections Sources:

• X posts: 9 live grok-x searches. Four broad searches: US market and stocks, Hong Kong, earnings movers, and post-election rotation. Three KOL whitelist searches: macro/strategy; semis/AI; and internet platforms, software and options flow combined into one. Two media whitelist searches: core newswires, and China-assets KOLs plus media combined into one.
• Market data: the official closing snapshot provided to us, the Aya heat ranking, the options scan, and individual-stock closes pulled from eastmoney.

X posts are used only for events, opinions and sentiment. No price or percentage figures are taken from posts. Where the heat ranking and the eastmoney close disagree, the eastmoney close is used.

Session backdrop (Wed, Nov 4): Democrats won both chambers of Congress. US stocks rallied hard, but money rotated within the market: the companies spending on AI jumped, while AI hardware and data-center suppliers sold off. Hong Kong rose for a fourth straight day and closed at the day's high.

1. Key Events

1. Democrats took both chambers, and stocks staged a "gridlock rally."
   • The Dow closed +3.03%. @RpsAgainstTrump called it the biggest one-day gain since April 2025.
   • @zerohedge said voters rebuked Trump over the economy and the Iran war.
   • @Reuters reported that Trump said the Iran war was "worth it," while acknowledging its role in the Republican losses.
   • @KobeissiLetter said US stocks added about $1.2T in market cap on the first trading day after the midterms.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³
2. Money moved from the companies selling AI to the companies paying for it.
   • Up: MSFT +6.68%, AMZN +6.12%, AAPL +5.31%.
   • Down: MU -7.00%, SNDK -7.91%, MRVL -7.08%, DELL -8.82%, NVDA -3.12%, INTC -3.77%.
   • @buzzberg_ai: "Wall Street bought the companies paying for AI and sold the ones getting paid."
   • 𝕏
3. Fears of curbs on new data centers hit power, electrical equipment and AI compute stocks.
   • Several accounts said Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data-center approvals through mid-2027. This claim has not been officially verified. @TitoEspot_ said the Ohio governor's race produced a similar result.
   • Power and electrical equipment closes: VST -13.83%, CEG -6.71%, GEV -9.30%, ETN -9.86%.
   • Compute and miner closes: CRWV -9.90%, HUT -23.23%, CIFR -19.95%, CLSK -16.56%, IREN -11.24%, CORZ -10.39%.
   • The exception was RIOT, which closed +9.63%. We found no explanation in our searches.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³
4. AppLovin beat and raised after the close.
   • Regular session: +10.69%.
   • Per @wallstengine: revenue $2.18B (est. $2.08B), EPS $4.30 (est. $4.04), Q4 revenue guide $2.37–2.40B (est. $2.25B).
   • Per @RealNickMugalli: it bought back 4.1M shares for $1.4B in the quarter.
   • The after-hours move has not been verified against an exchange snapshot.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
5. Qualcomm beat on revenue after the close, but its outlook drew criticism.
   • Regular session: +5.33%.
   • Per @unusual_whales and @wallstengine: revenue $10.44B (est. $10.11B), adj. EPS $2.17 (est. $2.16), Q1 revenue guide $10.4–11.2B.
   • @CNBC: "disappointing earnings forecast as memory shortage weighs on smartphone sales."
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
6. Regular-session earnings movers split sharply.
   • DUOL +25.99%: per @BitWafflz, DAUs +29% to 64.9M, revenue $309M beat.
   • YOU +23.81% after raising its cash-flow outlook.
   • XYZ +15.26% on a beat-and-raise.
   • MCD +6.53%: per @NoctizXIII, adj. EPS $3.57 (est. $3.36), global comps +1.5%, US -0.2%, dividend +4%.
   • DOX -30.07%: per @TickerGrove, FY27 revenue guided down by as much as 18% due to the T-Mobile dispute.
   • FIS -23.65%: per @Benzinga, guidance cut below estimates; @SiriusInvestor called it the day's worst large-cap decline.
   • The search results gave no matching post links for these items, so no 𝕏 links are attached.
7. Hong Kong rose for a fourth straight day, led by domestic chip substitution, innovative drugs/CXO and gold miners.
   • Chips: Hua Hong +15.75%, Haiguang Xinzheng +26.32%, SMIC +8.96%.
   • Drugs/CXO: WuXi AppTec +12.39%, WuXi Biologics +12.22%, BeOne +10.18%.
   • Gold: Chifeng Gold +18.15%, Zijin Gold International +14.58%, Zijin Mining +7.62%.
   • Optical modules and laminates, which sold off the previous session, rebounded: Zhongji Innolight +7.58%, Kingboard Laminates +14.55%.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
8. Trump Media (DJT) fell 24.54%. @business (Bloomberg) said Trump's social media company and meme coin both plunged after the Democratic victory. 𝕏

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reporting

• The election and markets
  • @ReutersBiz: the Dow jumped more than 1,000 points after the results, with all three main indexes near or above 2%. This describes intraday levels; see the table above for closes. 𝕏
  • @FT: the New York Post ran "Blue Tsunami" on its front page, and Fox News hosts began questioning Trump's Iran war strategy. 𝕏
  • @business: investors are betting alcohol companies are among the winners, on hopes for changes to tariff and immigration policy. We did not verify prices for these stocks. 𝕏
• AMD, the day after earnings: @FactSet said EPS beat consensus by 7.2%, revenue came in 2.1% above, and CY27 revenue growth was guided above 80%. The stock reached $514.61 intraday but closed only +1.01%. 𝕏
• SMCI: It beat expectations in its earnings release after the previous session's close, but closed -5.70% on the day. @Star_Investor said he was selling a December put "as the stock drops after good earnings" (no post link).
• Semiconductor supply chain
  • @jukan05 cited Korean media saying Samsung's second Taylor fab is already fully booked for AMD and NVIDIA HBM base dies before construction has started, with AMD taking most of the volume. 𝕏
  • @dnystedt: MediaTek CEO Rick Tsai said 2026 revenue will top $21B. 𝕏
  • @dnystedt also passed on a rumor that ASE's SPIL plans a NT$100B expansion on Central Taiwan Science Park land originally set aside for TSMC. 𝕏
• M&A: @wallstengine reported that Array (ARRY) and Shoals (SHLS) agreed to an all-stock merger. The combined company expects 2027 revenue of $2.2–2.4B and more than $100M in EBITDA synergies within three years. 𝕏
• Hong Kong and China A-shares
  • @cnfinancewatch listed ten A-share themes to watch, including chips and Ascend training, glass-fiber cloth price hikes, data-center capex, and indium phosphide long-term contracts. 𝕏
  • In his intraday notes he flagged PCB and semiconductor materials, citing an institutional net buy of RMB 185M in Huazheng New Material on the exchange's daily top-trader list. 𝕏
  • We found no Hong Kong coverage from the China-assets media group (@yicaichina and others) in the window.

Opinions & ratings

• Dan Ives, Wedbush: per @afvglobal, he warned of possible regulatory obstacles to AI expansion, covering plans for 800–1,000 US data centers. 𝕏
• @TimmerFidelity (Fidelity): the S&P equal-weight index has nearly caught up with the cap-weighted index, so the market is "broadening." He sees a prolonged pause within a bull market, comparable to 1994, 2015 and 2018. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @LizAnnSonders (Schwab)
  • S&P 500 Pure Value has taken the factor lead in recent weeks, up 20.5% and beating the benchmark by 9.3 points. 𝕏
  • The rolling correlation between the 10-year yield and the S&P 500 has moved from deeply negative to roughly flat. 𝕏

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

US market and rotation

Bullish

• @KobeissiLetter (≈2.0k likes / 130 reposts): posted on Election Day that the S&P 500 has closed green in the 12 months after every midterm since 1980, averaging +14%, and +15% after divided-government outcomes. 𝕏
• @DeFiTracer (≈52 likes / 10 reposts): "Markets love gridlock." Trump keeps the veto but Democrats control Congress, and lower oil eases inflation pressure. 𝕏
• @TMA_MarketIntel (minimal engagement, ≈99 views): tighter scrutiny of data centers could slow Big Tech's infrastructure spending and improve free cash flow. "Cloud giants rally as investors anticipate spending discipline." 𝕏

Bearish

• @MilkRoadAI (≈2 likes / 1 repost, ≈685 views): Democratic control of Congress raises the risk of tighter rules on AI, data-center construction, energy use and permitting, adding pressure on semiconductor and infrastructure companies. 𝕏
• @SpotGamma (≈74 likes): before the results, said it was "fairly gloomy," but flagged large call buying the previous day, including about 19k QQQ Sep '27 815 calls and about 7k MU Feb '27 1050/1250 call spreads. 𝕏
• @CheddarFlow (≈139 likes): before the results, warned that SPY was sitting in negative gamma, with dealers net short about $9.8B of gamma, so a slip lower could move fast. The market went up instead. 𝕏

Single stocks

Bullish

• AMZN｜@CKCapitalxx (≈59 likes): "That $AMZN drop to $220 after earnings was a crazy entry." AMZN closed +6.12%. 𝕏
• MSFT｜@CheddarFlow (≈119 likes / 13 reposts): someone bought more than $1.3M of next-week MSFT 557.5 and 565 calls, "all opening, all at the ask." MSFT closed at $555.80. 𝕏
• AAPL｜@CheddarFlow (≈163 likes): someone bought more than $1.8M of AAPL 350 calls expiring the same day. AAPL closed at $349.51, just below the strike. 𝕏
• MU｜@darkminer (≈6 likes): someone opened a roughly $73M bullish bet on MU. The options scan shows about $77.8M of premium in MU 72-day 700 calls, a similar size (see Section 5). MU closed -7.00%. 𝕏
• APP｜@RealNickMugalli (≈11 likes): a beat with a big buyback, "Limit up!" 𝕏

Bearish

• NVDA｜@JesseOlson (≈7 likes): "Remains bearish on the daily chart." NVDA closed -3.12%. 𝕏
• TSLA｜@xenomecha (≈8 likes): questioned the bullish chart setup on technical grounds. TSLA closed -3.34%. 𝕏
• MRVL｜@michaelsikand (≈34 likes; neutral, event-driven): the fall in MRVL's share price has shrunk the value of its all-stock bid for LITE. By his estimate it fell from $115B to about $70B, and a rival such as AMD or Intel could swoop in. MRVL closed -7.08% and LITE -7.85%. 𝕏
• DOX｜@POSITIONNOTES (≈1 like): "recurring revenue isn't guaranteed revenue." One dispute with T-Mobile could help drive a 14–18% revenue decline next year (no post link).

Hong Kong

Bullish

• @marika_0430 (minimal engagement, ≈93 views): gave four reasons. Democrats' strength lifted risk appetite; innovative drugs/CXO are at a Q3 inflection with mutual funds adding and valuations low; gold is back above $4,000 with central banks buying (gold price unverified); and HK followed the A-share afternoon rally. 𝕏
• @nbklsi (minimal engagement, ≈79 views): the market fears who will approve US data centers and police AI capex. That threat hits Japanese and Korean suppliers to the US AI chain, not China's domestic chip-substitution names.

Bearish

• @nbklsi (same post): also cautioned that this is "risk-off rotation, not new money," and HK could give back gains if Japan and Korea rebound next week. 𝕏
• @cnfinancewatch (≈9.5k views): rated the A-share environment 42/100, a "reduce exposure" level, advising buying only on pullbacks and not chasing. He said no stock in semis, AI compute software or robotics met his bar. 𝕏

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

US: One theme links the top 8 on the heat ranking: the election triggered a rotation between AI spenders and AI suppliers.

• MU (#1): closed -7.00%. Discussion volume was normal; 69% of self-tagged posts were bullish (32 posts). Options showed both large long-dated calls and very short-dated speculation, so bulls did not leave on the drop.
• APP (#2): closed +10.69%. Discussion volume was 3.9x normal, driven mainly by the after-hours beat; all 25 self-tagged posts were bullish.
• MSFT, AAPL and AMZN (#3, #4, #6): closed +6.68%, +5.31% and +6.12%, and were the main winners of the rotation. Bullish shares were 60% (20 posts), 56% (16) and 81% (21). Opinion was more divided on MSFT and AAPL.
• NVDA (#5): closed -3.12%, with 83% still bullish (23 posts).
• MRVL (#7): closed -7.08%. It was the only top-10 name with bears in the majority, at 62% bearish (21 posts). The shrinking value of the LITE deal dominated discussion.
• MCD (#8): closed +6.53%. It beat estimates, discussion ran at 3.7x normal, and 95% of posts were bullish (22 posts).
• Versus the prior day: on Nov 3, traders were buying the chip rebound and a miner surge, with RIOT, CIFR and HUT each up more than 15%. That trade fully reversed on Nov 4. AAPL swung from -1.90% the day before to +5.31%.

Hong Kong: All top-8 heat names rallied hard. Bull/bear data shows "no data source," so we give no sentiment ratios.

• Hua Hong (#1): closed +15.75% on 2.1x relative volume. Posts framed the move as domestic chip substitution that the US Congress cannot touch.
• Zhongji Innolight (#2) and Kingboard Laminates (#4): fell 10.92% and 10.20% the previous session and rebounded 7.58% and 14.55% today, on 2.8x and 1.6x relative volume. This looks like an oversold bounce.
• BeOne, WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec (#3, #5, #6): each rose more than 10%. Posts attributed the gains to a Q3 inflection and mutual-fund buying, but we found no specific filings to back this up.
• SMIC (#7) and Zijin Mining (#8): stand for the chip and gold themes respectively.
• Discussion levels: for most HK names, discussion was at normal levels. Original HK analysis on X was scarce, with the usable sample coming mainly from two Chinese-language accounts, so sentiment readings carry limited weight.

Week ahead (ET; consensus only, not yet released):

• Thu Nov 5, 8:30: initial jobless claims, est. 197K.
• Fri Nov 6, 8:30: nonfarm payrolls, est. +65K (prior 29K); unemployment rate est. 4.2%; average hourly earnings est. +0.3% m/m.
• Fri Nov 6, 10:00: preliminary UMich consumer sentiment, est. 48.1.

5. US Options Flow

Key reads

• MU: bets on both sides. MU closed -7.00%, yet about $77.8M of premium traded in 72-day 700 calls, which are in the money. With vol/OI of 1.3 the volume was mostly new, suggesting traders used the dip to build long-dated upside exposure (or a stock replacement). At the same time, 2-day 800–825 calls showed vol/OI of 28–48 with IV near 79–80%, and 800 puts saw $28.4M in premium. The market is pricing a big move around Friday's jobs report, which is pure speculation or event trading. Together with the MU Feb '27 call spreads @SpotGamma flagged the day before, medium-term bulls have not left despite the rotation.
• SHOP: Shopify sold off the previous session after its first revenue and GMV miss since 2022. It bounced 7.34% today along with software and platform stocks. The 135-day 160 calls traded at a vol/OI of 70 for $91.7M in premium, the day's strongest new-position signal, which points to post-earnings bottom-fishing. Our X searches found no options-account commentary on this trade, so the buyer's intent cannot be confirmed, and it could be one leg of a spread.
• Semiconductor hedging: SMH 475 and 500 puts clustered in 2–9 day expiries, with the 475 puts at a vol/OI of 54. MRVL medium- and long-dated puts carried IV above 64%. KLAC saw $140M in deep in-the-money puts. This matches the day's selling of AI suppliers in the stock market and shows money buying insurance against further short-term losses in semis.

Overall: The market-wide put/call premium ratio is 0.95, slightly below 1, which leans bullish. However, large put premiums clustered in semis (SMH, MRVL, KLAC) and QQQ, so the index-level lean is bullish while sector-level hedging is clearly visible.

Disclaimer: This report compiles public X posts and public market data for information and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Opinions and figures in X posts belong to their authors and some have not been independently verified. Investing involves risk.