US & Hong Kong Weekend Review (2026-11-09)

Report date: 2026-11-09 | Data cutoff: 2026-11-08 16:15 ET | X search window: 2026-11-05 to 11-08 | Latest session: US and HK, both Friday 2026-11-06 Sources:

• X posts: 10 grok-x searches. Coverage: US broad search, HK broad search, earnings-movers search, a search on the Nvidia and SpaceX events; macro/strategy, semis/AI, China-assets and options-flow KOL groups; core newswires and China media. The China media group returned nothing in the window.
• Prices: the system's official closing snapshot, plus closes for individual stocks and the Hang Seng Tech index pulled from eastmoney.
• Filings: Hua Hong and Li Ning figures are from HKEX filings.
• X posts are used only for events, views and sentiment. Price and percentage figures inside posts are never used.

Close (Fri 11-06): After Thursday's crash, chip stocks bounced on Friday. The Nasdaq closed higher and the Dow closed lower. Hong Kong gave back part of its earlier rally, with the AI hardware chain leading declines.

1. Key Events

1. A weekend controversy around Nvidia's CEO creates headline risk for Monday's open.
   • What happened: After Friday's close, reports said US intelligence believes Jensen Huang had a relationship with a business executive assessed as a Chinese state-security recruit. Huang then sent a staff memo admitting an affair.
   • Company response: On Sunday, per @business and @StockMKTNewz, Nvidia's board opened an independent probe into whether the CEO was targeted by a foreign intelligence agency. @DeItaone: "WILL REMAIN CEO AMID PROBE." @FirstSquawk quoted a spokesperson saying the probe "WON'T SLOW NVIDIA."
   • Stock: NVDA closed Friday +2.78% ($186.64), before the news broke.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³ 𝕏⁴
2. October payrolls far beat expectations, and SF Fed President Daly says more hikes are likely.
   • Jobs data: Per @DeItaone, payrolls were +165K vs. +59K expected, with unemployment at 4.1% vs. 4.2% expected. @Reuters said this keeps the Fed "on track to raise rates in December."
   • Daly's remarks: Per @business and @StockMKTNewz, Mary Daly said further tightening is likely needed: "Inflation has to be number 1 priority."
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏² 𝕏³
3. Chip stocks bounced on Friday, but far less than Thursday's losses.
   • Closes: AMD +11.04%, TSM ADR +6.33%, MU +5.12%, SNDK +3.55%, INTC +7.71%, AVGO +0.74%, WDC -1.44%.
   • Weekly picture: @DanielTNiles notes the SOX, S&P and Nasdaq all still fell for the week (his weekly figures are not verified against exchange data).
   • 𝕏
4. Earnings produced big moves in both directions.
   • Gainers: KRMN +42.13%, FROG +35.33%, TMDX +27.92%, IREN +20.02%.
   • Losers: IRTC -30.70%, DKNG -21.30%, AXON -18.18%, TEAM -16.15%.
   • Drivers are covered in Section 3.
5. Hong Kong gave back recent gains, with the AI hardware chain leading declines.
   • Biggest losers: FIT Hon Teng -14.16%, YOFC -10.46%, Zhipu -10.46%, Montage -9.37%, Victory Giant -8.98%, Innolight -8.73%.
   • Internet platforms: Alibaba -3.85%, Tencent -2.46%.
   • Gainers against the tape: Hua Hong +4.31%, Li Ning +5.16%.
   • 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
6. Hua Hong's Q3 revenue and gross margin both came in above its own guidance.
   • Q3 results: Per the company's 11-05 filing, revenue was US$987.1M, up 19.9% YoY. Gross margin was 24.6%, up 7.6pp YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders was US$123.4M, up 147.1% YoY.
   • Q4 guidance: Revenue of US$1.08B–1.09B and gross margin of 25%–26%.
   • Management: The company expects rising volumes and prices to "continue for some time."
   • On X, @FY30Turbo also described the results as a beat. 𝕏
7. Li Ning declared a special dividend.
   • Per its 11-05 filing: RMB 2.32 per share, record date Nov 23, payable Dec 1.
   • @nbklsi estimates a total of about 6 billion and a yield of about 18%. These are his figures and are unverified.
   • 𝕏
8. A SpaceX director resigned as the board weighs a Tesla merger.
   • Per @business, director Donald Harrison is resigning, and independent directors are weighing Musk's push to merge SpaceX with Tesla.
   • SPCX closed +8.62% on Friday and TSLA +4.23%.
   • 𝕏

2. Institutional & Media Coverage

Factual reporting

• Consumer sentiment rose: @LizAnnSonders reported November UMich sentiment at 51.0 vs. 48.0 est., with 1-year inflation expectations at 4.3% vs. 4.6% est. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• Moderna beat: Per @StockMKTNewz, Moderna's Q3 EPS was $0.38 vs. an expected $1.25 loss, and revenue was $1.3B vs. $885M expected. FY26 revenue growth guidance was raised to +15% to +25%. MRNA closed +5.27%. 𝕏
• Semiconductor supply-chain news (@dnystedt)
  • Micron: Micron says it will freeze construction of its US$4.5B Taoyuan Fab 11E amid a profit-sharing union dispute. Our previous report flagged this as unverified; this is a clearer account. 𝕏
  • Nvidia H200: Citing Reuters, he says about 600K H200s are stuck in Hong Kong awaiting entry approval. An 8-card H200 server fetched RMB 6M in China at end-October, about 3x its price a year earlier. 𝕏
  • Intel packaging: Intel laid out an EMIB roadmap with packages up to 240×240mm and 32+ HBM stacks. 𝕏

Views / Ratings

• @KobeissiLetter (Sunday): Relayed Trump's comment that the US "took a giant step back in history" after the midterms, and his reference to the $3T stock-market loss on Nov 5. 𝕏
• @SpotGamma: Published an analysis of VIX term structure and put skew with three scenarios for the next two weeks; it takes no clear directional view. 𝕏
• Buy-the-dip call on DraftKings: Per @MarcJacksonLA, Truist recommends buying DKNG on the dip. This is second-hand, and the search returned no link to the post.

3. KOL Bull & Bear Views

US Market

Bullish

• @KobeissiLetter (≈2.3k reposts / 23k likes, 11-05 post): Thursday's selloff was "more technical than fundamental," driven by leverage plus fears about AI regulation. 𝕏
• @KobeissiLetter (≈47 reposts / 693 likes): "Midterms are exceptional buying opportunities." By his count, the S&P has averaged +17.2% in the year after midterms since 1950. 𝕏

Bearish

• @KobeissiLetter (≈28 reposts / 572 likes): The market was already "concerned about AI profitability, CapEx, and Free Cash Flow," and the election result amplified those worries. 𝕏
• @charliebilello (≈62 reposts / 465 likes): Listed drawdowns from 2026 highs for the S&P, Nasdaq 100 and AI names including Nvidia, Intel and Sandisk (figures not verified against exchange data). In another post he notes high-beta, momentum and meme stocks are "All are now underperforming the S&P 500 on the year." 𝕏¹ 𝕏²
• @RyanDetrick (≈2 reposts / 31 likes): Endorsed the view that the "stock rebound is muted." 𝕏

Nvidia / Memory

Bullish

• @damnang2 (≈87 reposts / 627 likes, quoted by @jukan05): Big customers co-design next-gen HBM with the memory makers, so they won't easily cancel long-term agreements; "memory is no longer the same cyclical industry." 𝕏

Bearish

• @jukan05 (≈22 reposts / 260 likes): Replying to the post above, he argues deliveries can still be pushed out once demand really falls: "The claim that memory has completely shed its commodity character is… the most dangerous one." He also notes that if Nvidia leads the base die through NVHBM, that could squeeze HBM pricing. 𝕏
• @BearBullTraders (≈13 reposts / 155 likes): "$NVDA headline risk for day trading Monday… can create gap risk." 𝕏
• @CheddarFlow (≈31 reposts / 331 likes): Linked a ~$5M NVDA put sweep made in 30 seconds on 11-06 to the weekend CEO news, saying "Insiders getting ahead of the news." This is his speculation, with no evidence offered. 𝕏¹ 𝕏²

Earnings Movers

All posts below had very low engagement (under 10 likes unless noted), and the search returned no per-post links, so this subsection carries no 𝕏 markers.

• JFrog (bullish): @techprosv: revenue $179.2M, +31%; cloud +60% and now 57% of revenue; full-year guide raised to $680M–682M.
• Karman (bullish): @Volume_Stocks (8 likes): record Q3 revenue of $202M, +66% YoY; record $1.7B backlog; FY26 guide raised to $755M–760M.
• IREN (bullish): @ViralMuzik1989 (45 likes): AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200M, with a $20.3B backlog; he also notes the $4B ARR target has slipped to early 2027. @HijoDeDios77777 says IREN "set the tone for Neo Clouds." 𝕏
• Axon (mostly bearish): @techprosv: revenue of $909M missed the $934M estimate, and the full-year guide was cut to $3.61B–3.63B after about $130M of federal Dedrone deployments slipped. On the other side, @POSITIONNOTES thinks the market is overreacting: software revenue grew 43% and AI recurring revenue passed $100M.
• DraftKings (bearish): @EarningsAnatomy: Q3 revenue $1.33B, +16.2%, but marketing spend jumped 68% and the net loss widened. @MarcJacksonLA attributes the drop to weak 2027 guidance.
• Atlassian (bearish): @TheCallShifts: revenue of $1.772B beat the company's guide, and cloud growth guidance was raised. @Ryan15143 says the drop was about valuation: "there was no margin for error."
• iRhythm (bearish): @braincramps: Q3 revenue of $221.6M missed, plus a Zio MCT delay.
• Quantum (mixed): IONQ closed +23.42%, RGTI +19.29%, QBTS +18.01%. @NeSearch_ is bearish on RGTI: "priced for a miracle." 𝕏

Hong Kong

Bullish

• @Arrowuppz (40 likes): The rally in Chinese stocks is ultimately "价值的回归" (a return to value). On Tencent: "社交、游戏、支付、广告，哪个不是现成的现金流" (social, games, payments, ads — all ready-made cash flow). 𝕏
• @cnfinancewatch (14 likes): The State Council called for a stronger market-stabilization mechanism; "真金白银入市对权重股有托底作用" (real money entering the market puts a floor under heavyweights). 𝕏

Bearish

• @birder_uk (386 views): HK tech is under pressure because "市場開始擔心數據中心投資回報、巨額資本開支" (the market is starting to worry about data-center ROI and massive capex). 𝕏
• @nbklsi (very low engagement): Friday was an "AI硬件杀估值" (AI hardware valuation reset); "南向这几天大幅净卖、做空量走高" (southbound flows were heavy net sellers and short volume rose; not verified against HKEX data). 𝕏
• @cnfinancewatch (5 likes): "美股AI叙事进入'监管重定价'" (the US AI story is being repriced for regulation); A-share hardware is under pressure, while applications and domestic substitutes benefit. 𝕏

4. Buzz & Sentiment Shifts

US

The top 8 on the buzz list are almost all chip and AI-infrastructure names bouncing after Thursday's crash. Where the list's percentage differs from the official close, this section uses the close.

• NVDA: Closed +2.78%. Discussion at 1.2x normal, options score 86. Sentiment 70% bullish / 30% bearish on 37 posts. The weekend CEO story is a new variable that this sentiment data does not yet reflect.
• MU: Closed +5.12%. 73% bullish on 33 posts. The debate on X is about whether HBM is still cyclical, and about the Fab 11E freeze.
• AMD: Closed +11.04%. 85% bullish on 26 posts.
• NET: Closed +9.91%. Discussion at 3x normal, 77% bullish (13 posts, a thin sample). No post explaining the move was found on X.
• SPCX: Closed +8.62%. 91% bullish on 33 posts, driven by talk of a Tesla merger.
• IREN: Closed +20.02%. Discussion at 6.2x normal, the highest in the top 8; 93% bullish on 28 posts, driven by AI Cloud revenue and backlog.
• APP: Closed +9.86% on day two after earnings, with sentiment split 50/50 (16 posts).
• SNDK: Closed +3.55%. 96% bullish on 23 posts.

Overall, Friday's mood shifted from Thursday's panic to a cautious repair, though macro KOLs broadly see the bounce as weak.

Hong Kong

• Hua Hong made the list on its earnings beat, and Li Ning on heavy volume around its special dividend.
• Montage, YOFC, Zhipu and Kingboard Laminates made the list on sharp drops as AI hardware valuations reset.
• The pullbacks in Alibaba and Tencent were profit-taking after the rally earlier in the week.
• HK sentiment data shows "no data source," so we make no call on the bull/bear split.
• High-engagement HK posts on X were sparse.

This Week (ET)

• Tue 11-10, 04:00: Fed Governor Waller speaks.
• Tue 11-10, 08:30: October CPI, m/m est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%); core CPI m/m est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%).
• Thu 11-12, 08:30: Jobless claims, est. 194K.
• Fri 11-13, 08:30: PPI m/m est. 0.4% (prior 1.3%); core PPI m/m est. 0.3% (prior 0.7%).
• After strong payrolls and Daly's comments, CPI will directly shape pricing for a December hike.

5. US Options Flow

• SPY puts dominate: Six of the 12 largest-premium contracts are SPY puts expiring in 5–19 days, covering Tuesday's CPI and Friday's PPI. The $720 put (vol/OI 13.9) and $710 put (5.1) are both fresh positions. This looks like institutions adding event hedges after Thursday's crash rather than outright bearish bets.
• NVDA two-way bets: The $210 call (vol/OI 4.9, $51.3M premium) is a fresh bet on a medium-term rebound. On the same day, @CheddarFlow flagged a ~$5M December put sweep. With bets on both sides plus the weekend CEO story, implied volatility faces upward pressure on Monday.
• CCJ: Two far-dated OTM call lines total about 150K contracts against under 1K open interest. @CheddarFlow also posted: "A GIANT whale just bought $24.6M of $CCJ calls." We found no company news in the window, so we treat it for now as pre-event or thematic positioning (nuclear/uranium). CCJ closed +4.35%. 𝕏
• Overall sentiment: The market-wide put/call premium ratio is 1.27. Above 1 means a bearish tilt. Money is clearly buying protection ahead of this week's inflation data, but short-dated call speculation in single names (MSTR, COIN, AMD) has not faded.

Disclaimer: This report compiles public information and X posts for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. X content has not been independently verified.